The Notion of Predictability

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Principles

This book and whole professions (e.g. actuaries, predictive modelers, data scientists, economists, etc.) hinge on the assumption that the future can be predicted to some degree. But can it? The Newtonian revolution reinforced not only physical, but a causal determinism about our reality. The past and the future are inextricably linked. We can predict the […]

What is a model?

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Principles

A model in the context of predictive modeling is simply some useful mathematical abstraction of reality. A model should be (a lot) less complex than the reality it is intended to represent. This might seem obvious, but with ever increasing computation at our finger tips we need to carefully assess the relative complexity of our […]